Democrats hoping for anti-Trump backlash in Virginia's race to elect first female governor

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, faces an uphill climb against former Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, according to analysts and party insiders who say the state’s political landscape favors Democrats.

Republicans, though, insist Democrats face a serious challenge convincing voters who have been relatively happy with Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s leadership that it is time for an ideological shake-up.

“The Democrats will represent a dramatic change from the direction the state has been in for the last four years,” said Jeff Ryer, chairman of the 1st Congressional District Republican Party. “I am not sure Virginians are ready for a change that would align this state with California, Illinois and New York.”

Ms. Earle-Sears, a former Marine, and Ms. Spanberger, a former CIA officer, ran unopposed Tuesday in their party nomination fights. They will now battle it out to make history as the Old Dominion’s first female governor.

Ms. Earle-Sears, 61, broke a barrier four years ago when she became the first Black female elected statewide. She ran as a cultural warrior against abortion and for gun rights.

This week, she made history as the first female and Black Republican nominee for governor and vowed to build on the tax cuts enacted on Mr. Youngkin’s watch.

“I am going to lower the cost of living for working families,” Ms. Earle-Sears said. “I’m going to eliminate the taxes on tips. I am going to eliminate the taxes on goods for our children, and, yes, I am going to eliminate the taxes on cars — the car tax!”

Meanwhile, Ms. Spanberger, 45, promises more affordability for families and stronger public schools.

“We need to put Virginia and Virginians first,” the Democrat said this week.

The race is widely viewed as an early indicator of the national political environment, less than a year into President Trump’s second term across the Potomac River.

The off-year election tends to be a strong rallying cry for the party out of power in Washington and its angry activists.

“The biggest challenge for Republicans is getting their voters, who are probably happy with the direction of the state and happy with the way things are going on at the federal level to the polls because happiness does not generally motivate people,” Mr. Ryer said.

Mr. Ryer said the good news for Republicans is that Ms. Spanberger, like the rest of the Democratic ticket, has a long legislative record that includes votes undercutting the centrist image she seeks to project.

Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, said Republicans will face voter frustration over the Trump administration’s efforts, led by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, to downsize the federal government and the federal workforce.

“The headwinds are particularly strong because President Trump has done a great deal to trim the federal workforce in ways that undermine the Virginia economy,” Mr. Farnsworth said. “If you are a federal worker living in Virginia who lost her job or worry you are going to lose your job, or someone who sells appliances or gas to federal workers, there are a lot of uncertainties in your personal financial situation going forward.”

Virginia has more than 150,000 federal employees, according to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, ranking it third behind California and the District of Columbia.

“Northern Virginia voters, as well as those in Richmond and Hampton Roads, where federal employment is relatively high, will not thank Republicans for their personal financial insecurity,” Mr. Farnsworth said.

Others have questioned whether Ms. Earle-Sears has failed to unify the Republican ticket, which includes John Reid for lieutenant governor and Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is seeking reelection.

All 100 seats in the House of Delegates are also up for grabs in November.

Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping Democrats on the national level overplay their response to Mr. Trump’s aggressive push to deport illegal immigrants, which has triggered combative protests in Los Angeles and other cities.

Ms. Spanberger, who served in Congress from 2019 to 2025, has been a fundraising juggernaut throughout her political career. The most recent financial reports show she has $14 million on hand, compared with $3 million for Ms. Earle-Sears.

A Roanoke College survey last month showed Ms. Spanberger has a 17-percentage-point lead over Ms. Earle-Sears. Another poll, commissioned by Virginia Free, a business advocacy group, found Ms. Spanberger had a 4-point lead.

Mr. Youngkin is term-limited. The Virginia Constitution does not allow governors to serve two consecutive terms.

Mr. Youngkin defeated former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a strong 2021 election cycle for the Republicans 11 months after President Biden’s victory.

Democrats hope the race this year is more akin to 2017, when the pushback against Mr. Trump helped Ralph Northam defeat Republican Ed Gillespie in a high-profile showdown.

Mr. Trump lost Virginia by nearly 6 percentage points in 2024 after losing the state by 10 points in 2020.