Sen. Cornyn's reelection bid faces more warning signs in new Senate primary poll

Sen. John Cornyn has a lot of ground to make up in his reelection push in Texas against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

According to a new statewide survey, Mr. Cornyn trails Mr. Paxton 50%-28% among Texas GOP primary voters. The poll also found that 54% of voters want someone new in Mr. Cornyn’s Senate seat.

It’s another warning sign for Mr. Cornyn. Mr. Paxton, 62, has been outpacing Mr. Cornyn, 73, in early polls ahead of the 2026 election. 

GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering a challenge to Mr. Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term and has been a staple of Texas politics since he was elected a state district judge in 1984.

Mr. Cornyn faces a tricky reelection push in deep red Texas where the conservative voters who dominate the primary have questioned his longstanding ties to the GOP establishment in Washington and his lead role in carving out a 2022 bipartisan deal to curb gun violence in the aftermath of the shooting that left 19 children and two teachers dead at a Uvalde elementary school.

Meanwhile, Mr. Paxton is anchoring his campaign on the idea that the state needs someone more committed to “Texas values” and President Trump.

Mr. Cornyn has roughly nine months to win back voters by highlighting his conservative achievements and support for Mr. Trump.

The landing page of his campaign website prominently features a picture of Mr. Cornyn smiling alongside the president, both of whom flash a thumbs-up.

“Texas conservative Senator John Cornyn votes with President Trump 99% of the time,” the website reads in all caps.

The senator’s campaign is also spotlighting what they see as Mr. Paxton’s political warts.

They unveiled a “Crooked Ken Paxton” website in mid-May that reminds voters how the Christian conservative tried to conceal an alleged extramarital affair and accuses him of overseeing grants to left-wing causes, including a group that helps unauthorized immigrants avoid deportation.

Conducted May 27-28 on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute, a pro-school choice nonprofit group, the latest poll included 600 Republican primary voters.

Punchbowl News first reported the survey.

Last week, a Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 registered Texas voters showed Mr. Cornyn trailing Mr. Paxton 43%-34%, with 23% undecided. 

In a hypothetical three-way race, the survey showed Mr. Paxton, 34%, leading Cornyn, 27%, and Mr. Hunt, 15%, and that 24% of likely GOP primary voters were still up for grabs.

A poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, which backs the incumbent, released earlier this year also found Mr. Conryn way back, trailing Mr. Paxton 56%-40%.